Aggressively boring. Reading about it is much more engaging, and you don't have to suffer through that terrible smug british guy's voice.
|Angel Carver |
Down boy. I agree that reading about it is a bit faster, but I can always use a refresher with this one.
he could definitely talk faster but it's a good explanation.
I GET IT AAAHHH!!!! MY HEAD...
Also...I want a goat dammit.
This problem only makes sense when more doors are added.
|Michael Houser |
I was hoping that there was a clip of this problem somewhere that ACTUALLY used 'Let's Make A Deal' footage. That would be ideal, but this was the best I could find. Though a mathematically inclined girl I know was highly engaged by it.
I enjoyed the smug Englishman's explanation, personally. British male evolutionary development ended at documentary narration.
And Malcolm McDowell.
I call bullshit.
It might have been the same guy, but there was this website with lots of trick probability problems which included the Monty Hall one. The answer was always some trick counter intuitive answer that made sense when you read the explanation, but in the forums some statistics savvy people always debunked him by showing steps in the equation that he glossed over.
Example: There is uniform 50/50 chance that every child will be a boy or girl. If you pick a home where one of the children is a girl, what is the probability that the other child will be a boy? The obvious answer is 50/50, but the "solution" was 2 out of 3 because there is a 50% chance of one of each gender (older boy younger girl, older girl younger boy), a 25% chance of both boys (older boy younger boy), and a 25% chance of both girls (older girl younger girl). Since you already know that one is a girl, it cannot be both boys so that leaves 2 homes with a boy as the younger sibling and 1 home with a girl as the younger sibling.
It makes perfect sense once you read it, but several people pointed out in the forum that if you pick a home where one of the children is a girl, you are more likely to have already picked the home with 2 girls and through some mathematical wizardry, once you factor in that the 2 girl home is more likely to come up than the mixed gender home, the odds came out to exactly 50/50.
Now I forget 100% of my statistical probability class (ha ha!), but I'm willing to bet he overlooked a similar portion here. Don't quite know what though.
Ah ha, it was Cecil Adams on straightdope.com
OK, now I want to see the probability of "Deal or No Deal" explained. I know it's a 1 in 26 chance of picking the million, but after that I get to bored with the show to watch, so I want to know: 1. Do they ever offer to swap the first and last suitcase if they get down to two? and 2. What would the likelyhood of your winning the million be if you chose that "new" suitcase instead of the one that you first got at the beginning of the game?
| Register or login To Post a Comment|